Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Trump charges ahead

Hi Kevin, I have a question about the electorate.

Conservative commentators are saying Trump isn't all that conservative,
and I've heard interviews with conservatives who don't care as much
about the policy positions as about the attitude. Another variety of
Trump supporter said that he was torn between Bernie and Trump, because
both want, this supporter averred, to make the system work for the
little guy. There is a lot of evidence that there is - despite the
apparent animosity between these groups - an overlap between the Trump
base and the Bernie base.

I'm thinking that both the Democratic and Republican parties are in
convulsions over the divide of whether the system is working for people
or the wealthy. Both Democratic and Republican parties have their
capitalist wings, and now that Bernie has come forward, their populist
wings. The populist wings have not fused yet because they have distinct
visions of what "working for the people" looks like, and the capitalist
wings have not fused for the homologous reasons. But the internal
tensions are tearing these parties apart, or will.

To put it one way, the revolution has already started.

In a Trump V Sanders race, a populist/capitalist would be going head to
head with a populist. In a Trump v Clinton race, two capitalists? In a
Cruz/Rubio v Sanders, would it be capitalists v populist? The lines are
not distinct to me but I can see a further purification of the
ideologies which divide the American electorate, in years to come.

My question is, if Trump were not nominated, would a significant
fraction of Trump supporters prefer Sanders over any Republican?


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